UN panel: Global warming human-caused, dangerous

Global warming is here, human-caused and probably already dangerous — and it's increasingly likely that the heating trend could be irreversible, a draft of a new international science report says.
AP Wire
Aug 27, 2014

 

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Monday sent governments a final draft of its synthesis report, which combines three earlier, gigantic documents by the Nobel Prize-winning group. There is little in the report that wasn't in the other more-detailed versions, but the language is more stark and the report attempts to connect the different scientific disciplines studying problems caused by the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas.

The 127-page draft, obtained by The Associated Press, paints a harsh warning of what's causing global warming and what it will do to humans and the environment. It also describes what can be done about it.

"Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems," the report says. The final report will be issued after governments and scientists go over the draft line by line in an October conference in Copenhagen.

Depending on circumstances and values, "currently observed impacts might already be considered dangerous," the report says. It mentions extreme weather and rising sea levels, such as heat waves, flooding and droughts. It even raises, as an earlier report did, the idea that climate change will worsen violent conflicts and refugee problems and could hinder efforts to grow more food. And ocean acidification, which comes from the added carbon absorbed by oceans, will harm marine life, it says.

Without changes in greenhouse gas emissions, "climate change risks are likely to be high or very high by the end of the 21st century," the report says.

In 2009, countries across the globe set a goal of limiting global warming to about another 2 degrees Fahrenheit above current levels. But the report says that it is looking more likely that the world will shoot past that point. Limiting warming to that much is possible but would require dramatic and immediate cuts in carbon dioxide pollution.

The report says if the world continues to spew greenhouse gases at its accelerating rate, it's likely that by mid-century temperatures will increase by about another 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) compared to temperatures from 1986 to 2005. And by the end of the century, that scenario will bring temperatures that are about 6.7 degrees warmer (3.7 degrees Celsius).

"The report tells us once again what we know with a greater degree of certainty: that climate change is real, it is caused by us, and it is already causing substantial damage to us and our environment," Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann wrote in an email. "If there is one take home point of this report it is this: We have to act now."

John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, is in the tiny minority of scientists who are skeptical of mainstream science's claim that global warming is a major problem. He says people will do OK: "Humans are clever. We shall adapt to whatever happens."

While projections show that the world will warm and climate will change, there's still a level of uncertainty about how much, and that makes the problem all about how much risk we accept, said MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel.

If it's soon and only a little risk, he said, that's not too bad, but when you look at the risk curve the other end of it is "very frightening."

The report used the word risk 351 times in just 127 pages.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/

Comments

Garage Sippin'

Ok. What is the action plan to avoid this calamity?

Barry Soetoro

Pay your Carbon Tax.

cvocvo

Just think if the people of the Ice Age changed their habits and stopped the warming that eventually thawed the glaciers. Those of us in Grand Haven would be living in igloos instead of spending time at the Lake Michigan beach (remember (Lake Michigan) would not exist if not for the "climate change" that allowed the glaciers to thaw).

Wolverine49457

You should never waste a good crisis, self made or otherwise...I smell a new tax and even more loss of freedom...for the US of course, not in any other country...Thanks UN idiots.

Garage Sippin'

New taxes and more government waste. I wonder how much this UN panel cost our grandchildren?

skyking007

Some people will keep up the denial. What we should do is work together to adopt to clean energy. Mankind can solve this problem if we all band together.

Magyar

Enough of this foolishness, All scientists do not concur with this THEORY.

For the past 20+ years I have dealt on a daily basis with PhD and master degree scientists. Guess how many believe in this Climate Change/Global Warming THEORY?

Not one.

Yes - we need to clean up our mess, yes, we should waste less. The arrogance of these novices trying to push this down our throats is amazing.

Freddo

#1. All scientific causative explanations are stated as a THEORY (as you'd put it). Plate tectonics is a THEORY. The explanation of gravity is a THEORY. A theory is an explanation backed up by evidence.

#2. Anecdotes are not compelling evidence.

#3. How many of your "PHD and master degree scientists" are climatologists? The opinions of herpetologists, for example, are not particularly expert on the subject of climate.

#4. Studies of peer-reviewed scientific articles on climate change show more than a 99% consensus on the reality of global climate change.

#5. The UN panel is advised by climate scientists. The arrogant novices aren't the climate scientists; they're the people who gainsay those with credentials and expertise on the matter.

Magyar

Oh wait - there was one.

A young lady, newly minted from Case Western, was a staunch advocate.

For about a year - until she shed the false data and information she was brainwashed with at the university.

Garage Sippin'

Whether true or untrue, the solution is not possible. There is no way that every country in the world will work together to do anything. So it comes down to clean up our mess, waste less, etc. That's all.

gordbzz231

I watched another video sometime ago about green house gases and they said that,s not totally true, the earth has it,s up and down period,s, some year,s it,s warmer all thru the year and then it cool,s off and we have cooler year,s and it is normal, not caused by green house gases, it is a marketing scheme to get you to invest, create new job,s and more with goverment waste by providing money to companies and firm,s claiming to make product,s that will help us become greener, i can go on and on, but you get the idea, i go with Magyar on his theory.

Freddo

Do tell, what evidence did your video cite to say that current climate change is not driven by human factors? The evidence that it is connected to changes in human living patterns is pretty overwhelming. Unless you have a PhD in climatology, I don't think you have the experience to gainsay those who do.

Yes, the Earth has cool years and warm years. However, all ten of the hottest years since record-keeping began have been since 1998. The trend line of the last several decades has been increasingly above average, and these temperature increases are demonstrably linked to the increased levels of greenhouse agents.

We know that some gases are greenhouse agents, in that they trap infrared rays though would otherwise reflect off the surface. This is demonstrable in any laboratory setting. We also know that the concentration of these gases in our atmosphere (in terms of particles per million) is increasing every year. What do you think -- even as a layman -- would happen under such circumstances.

Straightjacket

I can cook eggs faster on the sidewalk?

gordbzz231

I do not feel the need to prove anything, i just said i watch a video, sometime ago, maybe couple of year,s, the guy,s will tell you, use Google, that,s what it,s for

Freddo

Do you have any idea how many videos exist on the subject of climate change?

I watched a video that talked about Santa Claus and his polar toy-making operation. I watched a video that claimed that the US government carried out the 9-11 attacks using cruise missiles and fake passenger jets. I watched a 1950s PSA that said that all homosexuals were child molesters, and another that said that children should protect themselves from nuclear bombs by hiding under their desks.

Just because a video makes a claim does not make it accurate or credible. You introduced this video as being probitive as regards the "lie" of climate change. You give us no evidence, no indication of how the video's authors researched the topic, what credentials they had, or what biases they held, and yet we are to take it as proof of the correctness of your argument?

Tri-cities realist

Kind of like your statements (no "proof")?

Wolverine49457

Were'nt the same highly educated experts predicting an ice age about ten or so years ago? When glacier in Canada melted as proof of global warming and warm weather plants and trees were uncovered it left the phd experts scratching their heads. I am not confident the experts are even in ball park anymore. Really smart people of the day used to think draining blood was the cure-all while the experts of another era said we should calim our nerves by having a smoke.

Freddo

More like 30 years, back when their computer climate modeling was far less sophisticated. One big thing that happened since then was the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which demonstrated a great deal about the behavior of the atmosphere.

Yes, the planet has natural temperature variations. Yes, it was warmer before the last ice age. The key point is that never before in Earth's history has the climate been burdened by the additional factor of substantial human intervention in the atmosphere, and almost never has climate been shifted so abruptly. Temperature swings take many centuries to unfold. They are happening far faster today. That is what makes anthropogenic climate change problematic: life cannot adapt rapidly enough to changes on that scale.

Tri-cities realist

Shifted so abruptly... Do you mean like the end of a hockey stick? Never mind, that data was falsified.

BigRicky

The earth was 1 degree celsius hotter than current avg temps during the medieval warming period. Mankind flourished. During the little ice age, the avg temperature was only 1 degree Celsius cooler than average temps. Mankind struggled. So tell me what is the optimum temperature of the earth?

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/stud...

jjabrahms

ok, great..... when will summer hit west michigan?????

gordbzz231

Some like it hot, Some like it, not !

gordbzz231

Enough Said

 

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