Can Michigan clinch a No. 1 seed?

U-M, MSU about to tip off for 3rd time this winter
MCT Wire
Mar 16, 2014

Michigan is being widely speculated as a No. 1 seed candidate when the NCAA Tournament brackets emerge after 6 p.m. today.

CBS Sports’ Seth Davis opened the network's show today suggesting it, ESPN's Jeff Goodman tweeted it and other experts have indicated the same.

So, assuming Florida, Wichita State and Arizona are the other three No. 1s, let's play the resumé game comparing the expected candidates for the fourth spot.

Remember, the selection committee has screens with the Ratings Percentage Index as the primary tool, but are allowed to use outside metrics (BPI, KenPom, etc.) to include in the decision-making. Conference affiliation is not discussed or considered and the final 10/12 games, as used in the past, is not on the committee screens as a factor.

Whether's today's U-M/MSU game is a factor with contingency brackets is unknown. The same can be said for Duke and Virginia, two other No. 1 candidates who play each other in the ACC tournament final today.

But the committee has many moving parts today with bracketing, locations and trying to avoid rematches, so it may not be a fluid option when that game ends 20 minutes before the Selection Show.

Michigan

Pros: 10 Top 50 RPI wins, the third best total in the country. A No. 7 strength of schedule and an overall RPI of 9.

Cons: “Bad” losses to No. 100 Indiana and No. 149 Charlotte (though the injuries in that game will be mentioned.) KenPom ranking: 11. Seven losses.

Villanova

Pros: 6 Top 50 wins, including one over No. 3 Kansas, 16-3 against Top 100, No. 34 SOS, No. 5 RPI,

Cons: One bad loss, to No. 128 Seton Hall. KenPom ranking: 6

Kansas

Pros: 12 Top 50 wins. 4 wins against the Top 13. No. 1 SOS, No. 3 RPI.

Cons: Nine overall losses (no team has ever gotten a top seed with more than 7.) 7 Top 50 losses, 9 overall losses. One bad loss, to No. 88 West Virginia. KenPom ranking: 9

Louisville

Pros: Five overall losses, none outside top 36. KenPom ranking: 2

Cons: Just 5 Top 50 wins. No. 80 SOS.

Virginia

Pros: Six overall losses. KenPom ranking: 5

Cons: Only 4 Top 50 wins. Lost to No. 78 Maryland.

Duke

Pros: Beat other contenders Michigan and Virginia head to head. No. 9 SOS, 6 Top 50 wins. 12-5 against Top 100. No. 7 overall RPI.

Cons: Lost to No. 79 Clemson, No. 112 Wake Forest and No. 136 Notre Dame.KemPom ranking: 7

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