First-round flops? Time will tell

Mon, Apr 27, 2009    to del.icio.us

Before handing out grades on how a team selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, you should ideally wait three seasons to see if a prospect is truly a gem or a flop.

There are so many intangibles that determines success for an NFL career, ranging from avoiding injuries, to how well a player fits into their new team's system, or how they adjust to being a multi-millionaire.

Obviously, some players (almost any Pittsburgh Steeler) handle it better than others (Adam 'Pac-Man' Jones or 90 percent of the Detroit Lions' draft picks).

In the case of the Lions, three years is usually too long. After about eight games — especially in the Matt Millen era — the organization could typically see it had made multiple mistakes.

Maybe it's a little pessimistic to believe the Lions' new brain trust of general manager Martin Mayhew, team president Tom Lewand and head coach Jim Schwartz will make the same painful miscalculations year-after-year, but until fans see blatant proof of success on the field, they'll continue to second-guess any of the team's decisions.

Let's just say there was plenty of second-guessing this weekend, starting with the No. 1 overall pick, Matthew Stafford.

No. 1 overall Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

GRADE: C

Yes, it's a tad ridiculous that a player who has never taken a snap at the pro level and who probably can't grow a full beard was just rewarded the most lucrative contract in NFL history — a six-year deal with a maximum value of $78 million.

That's not my issue with the pick. The NFL hasn't adopted a rookie salary cap, leaving poor franchises holding top picks almost no choice but to fork over huge amounts of cash to unproven picks.

My dilemma with Stafford is that more than likely, he'll have to sit out a year while he develops to the speed and lifestyle of the NFL. Unfortunately, the Lions do not have the luxury to wait a season or two for a player to develop. They need help — and a lot of it — right now.

If I were in Mayhew's shoes, I'd feel much more comfortable handing millions over on a safer bet — linebacker Aaron Curry or offensive tackle Jason Smith.

Plus, the quarterback market is expected to be much more talented for the 2010 draft, including top-notch prospects Sam Bradford of Oklahoma, Colt McCoy of Texas, Tim Tebow of Florida, or even Jevon Snead of Ole Miss.

Still, Stafford makes the pick a 'C' only because of his potential and the rave-reviews about his arm strength. Let's hope that one day his accuracy is also a strong point. Right now, it's a major worry because Stafford completed less than 57 percent of his passes during his college career.

No. 20 overall Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

GRADE: C

It's a straight 50-50 dilemma.

In one case, Pettigrew fills a huge need for Detroit, providing an athletic 6-foot-6, 265-pound, dependable pass-catcher that is a significant upgrade over Michael Gaines or Casey FitzSimmons.

Everyone wonders when the last time the Lions' had a Pro Bowl quarterback, but their drought at tight end is just as depressing. It's been several decades since Hall of Famer Charlie Sanders solidified the position.

But the second-guessing comes with the other needs the Lions could have filled with the No. 20 pick. How about an offensive tackle like Ole Miss' Michael Oher? Or how about his college teammate, defensive tackle Peria Jerry? How about a middle linebacker for a defense that allowed a franchise-worst 517 points? The Lions' blatant disregard at upgrading their defense not only in this draft but in the past three, continues to mystify the Lions' fan base.

If Pettigrew is the second-coming of Jason Witten — like many experts have compared him to — then this pick could be pushed up to a 'B+'. But if he turns out to be more of a David Sloan-type, push it down to a 'D+'.